What Are “Supernatural’s” True Ratings?
This question has been asked a lot over the past few seasons, as “Supernatural†ratings have declined (and The CW’s). Are less people watching?
In an article I put up on TV For The Rest of Us, I covered in detail a recent Wall Street Journal article that stated among other things, that twenty percent of CW viewers are now watching online. That’s more than any other network. On top of that, “Supernatural†at least in the 18-49 demo has been seeing over fifty percent increases (and often higher) when DVR + 7 has been factored in.
A great site to discuss such topics is TV By The Numbers One of the frequent commenters there decided to do the math recently on “Supernatural.†This comment was posted on the TV For The Rest of Us article, so I don’t have the original link. The person who wrote this goes by the name of Mark Wood on TV By The Numbers:
Now of course that’s across the board, meaning some shows will have had larger then 20% of its total audience being online, and some will have less. Without specific show data, all we can do is make educated estimates.
For example, with an average of 2.5 million means that for most of the season that online push means that its actual overall audience would be around 2.9 million.
Considering that back 6 years ago in April the first year of the CW with all viewing options SPN would have got a 3.4. 3.4 and in 6 years a 2.9 in viewers. That really highlights that the numbers we see weekly for SPN are more impacted by the change in how people view shows, than the loss of SPN’s audience.
The CW more than any network is losing higher percentages to both DVR’s and to online viewing (that network 20% is the highest of the broadcast networks) and are more likely to be in adults 18-34.
In fact, you can use info like this for any show to track actual audience erosion year to year. Now all that is good for, is basically tracking the migration of viewers, and to track a show’s general audience.
Doesn’t mean that a show has the same revenue potential that it would have had years ago with higher numbers. Not at all.”
Going by the Wall Street Journal article, whichstated online viewing for The CW is double now from last year, ten percent of viewers were watching online last April. Viewership hovered at around 2 million live this time last year. DVR was only bumping up the total 33%. Increase that two million by another ten percent, we’re at about 2.9 million. According to the calculations in the comment above, that’s were we stand in season seven as well (although I’m getting 3 million, but we won’t quibble over .1). Just for fun, the average number of viewers for season one in April on The WB? 3.6 million.
So what does all this mean? Perhaps Supernatural isn’t eroding as quickly was we think in terms of viewership. Without sound figures though publicly available in all areas, it’s guessing, just like Mark Wood said. Still, it’s fun to approximate, and this is the first time I’ve heard of any online viewing numbers.
So what do you think? Are you finding these numbers encouraging, or are shifts in the way we’re watching not good for the show?
Fascinating look at the numbers here, Alice.
I think, rather the networks and media companies want to believe, the internet is the wave of the future. Online viewing is what the current 18-34 demographic prefers, and to ignore that is suicide. Make any attempts to curb it and you will fail. Embrace it and thrive.
The CW faces challenges, and we all know that, but I think it also faces a huge opportunity to become the next upstart network to shake the model up. If they were to embrace the online viewership and find a way to convince advertisers that it’s lucrative to do so, they could turn things upside down. I’ve long thought they should just grab the bull by the horns and run wild with what they could do with this opportunity.
I just don’t know that they will.
In terms of Supernatural itself, I think it’s interesting that looking at all of these numbers the show has stayed a steady rock more or less through its entire run. All shows see dips and spikes through a season, but to see the speculative numbers here reflect that the same amount watches on a regular basis matches a lot of the fandom passion we see online—and there’s that word again!
I think it’s a good thing for the show, but only if the advertisers and suits agree to keep it on the air and treat it right when they do decide to draw the curtain. This show and its faithful fans deserve that.
Alice, I think it’s great that the show has other ways for people to view it. My daughter doesn’t watch it live. She watches it on the DVR or on her computer. So, she’s part of those who enjoy watching that way. I really think the ratings system is quite antiquated and it is in desperate need of updating. It doesn’t reflect today’s viewers.
That’s really interesting! It helps put things into context to add the data between the two points. For example, we can see that we haven’t lost viewers since last year, they’ve just shifted.
I find it both encouraging and frustrating. It’s nice to know more people are watching than the live ratings are reflecting, but seeing as the outdated model still only takes the live ratings into account, it doesn’t bring in the ad revenue. Which would pay for more classic rock tunes, for example, if they didn’t have to tighten the budget so much.
Here’s the link to Mark Wood’s post:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/04/23/friday-final-tv-ratings-grimm-supernatural-adjusted-up-2020-adjusted-down/130315/comment-page-5/#comments
Thanks for the link, and thank you for sharing Mark’s post with me in the first place. I normally read threads on TV By The Numbers, but I missed that one, as well as the Wall Street Journal article when it first came out.
I have seen so many people comment on how they found the show through Netflix since it’s conception there. That they watched all the episodes to get caught up and are loving the series.
I think these numbers are encouraging and a great counter argue to anyone who says the ratings have gone down because of Sera, Eric and Misha.
I always knew Online viewing was pretty big, and the fact our ratings really haven’t budged is good news indeed.
Thanks for all the math and hard work 🙂
I’ve heard a lot of people say they found it on TNT too since it started airing there. None of this reflects who watches purely on DVD, Netflix (which is prior seasons only) or if that 20% counts Hulu. I think it does, but I have no proof of that. I’m not sure about iTunes either.
Also, none of this reflects DVR beyond +7. I know of people that wait a few weeks and then watch a string of episodes together. That’s been a problem since VCRs were invented too, so that figure will always be ignored.
I totally agree with this analysis Alice. I have been making the same point on TV by the Numbers regularly this season. I agreed with Mark W in the discussion you refer to and posted my own calculations. I worked out the figures comparing this seasons live + 7 day DVR figures compared to last. I said;
[i]- In s6 1.4 were watching on average (1 live + 0.4 DVR). This year the live average fell 25% to 0.75. If this meant the show was 25% less popular you’d expect the DVR demo to fall by a similar % to 0.3, giving a total audience of 1.05. In fact the DVR figure is on average an additional 0.43 (57%) this season (an increase on s6) giving a total average audience this year of 1.18 – only 16% less than last season, not the 25% fall the change in live figures imply. When you allow for the fact that CW claim 20% now watch online in addition to the live + DVR – way up from last year – then the total number watching SPN has barely fallen at all since s6. They have just changed how they watch. [/i]
DVR figures for s5 were available. Here is the link if you are interested. Our average was +25%.
[url]http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2010/06/18/final-2009-10-broadcast-primetime-show-live7-dvr-ratings/54601/[/url]
These figures are great for fans because they show that – despite what some of the more negative elements of the fandom often claim – the popularity of the show has been maintained in a pretty remarkable way over the years. Unfortunately it may be almost as popular as it was, but it is not as profitable in terms of ad revenue.
Live is where the money is, but online, streaming, downloads, DVRing is the future. If the networks don’t change their business model – as CW are trying to do to their credit – then I wonder what the future holds.
Thanks for the exact DVR figure for season five. I do remember how they released the total for the season, but for most of the season we never got individual. Using 25%, that comes out to 3.25 million.
Thanks for sharing your comments from TV By The Numbers. Most in this fandom don’t spend a lot of time on that site (they just check the numbers) and aren’t aware that the show is actually doing okay with all things factored in. They just see that decreasing figure every Saturday and get sad.
I know what you mean. Every single time someone tries to use ratings to justify their case that the show’s quality is dipping, I have to step in and prove otherwise. This little study though is stunning just how consistent the viewership is.
Great to see your views on this!
Alot of people I know have to watch on line because they don’t get the channel. One friend of mine has to wait until I buy my season DVD’s, than get caught up.
I know! We have a place we go on weekends, and we can’t get The CW there either. We’re only 45 minutes out of town and there’s no cable connection. We have no problem getting all other networks. The CW has a much larger coverage problem than they let on.
I actually think the viewers are still higher than just adding in the online watchers. I’m constantly finding people who are just discovering the show, on TNT or Netflix, and are as excited about it as I was in S1. And there is a large group who seem to wait for the DVDs and are always a season behind. Those viewers may not generate ad revenue, but sales of DVDs and merchandising has got to make a show like Supernatural more profitable than an average watch-and-forget ratings giant on other networks.
On a global scale, it seems like Supernatural is very popular, even in countries that don’t have it showing on air. Fans seem to find it and watch it, and that’s all the internet and the power of the fanbase.
Anyone who thinks SPN has dropped much, all I can suggest is go back, pre DVR or even season two were DVR was still fairly insignificant, and then chart all shows that were in production, and any new ones as the years go by. Factor DVR numbers when you have all of them, and then just off of those two metrics you will see how little SPN has dropped in relation to not just the CW, but to all broadcast network tv shows.
And yes I was bored one weekend and did it. Now SPN isn’t the best at holding our viewers, there are a a few that have held better over the years, heck there is one that has actually built over the years (Damn you NCIS). But for whatever reason, SPN has held far better then any show should. And thats with a move to Friday in addition.
Thank you for getting bored Mark! It is a truly fascinating analysis. I really don’t think the drop off is that bad at all. Yeah, not everything can be NCIS. Still, I think more people are watching Supernatural, they’re just watching DVDs and reruns on TNT. And Netflix. There’s a lot of catch up on.
Thanks for commenting here! It’s an honor to share your analysis. We dig this kind of stuff.
I get the CW on a local TV station, but I understand that in some areas the local stations have dropped the CW because of overall low viewership numbers. Thank God mine didn’t. I think that, too has lead to a decrease in live viewing.
They didn’t bring Mark P. in for no reason. He’s good at what he does and I expect that he will turn the CW to more online viewing, as that is the future. He seems to have made some very good business decisions in the short time he’s been there.
My nephew and niece are away at school and can only watch online. And they also just started watching recently. I think Netflix and TNT will capture a lot of new viewers because it is a really hard show to come in on in the middle. I wish CW was a better known Network none of my family had heard of it.
I am not sure what category this falls in, but I buy each season from Amazon instant video. I get each episode on Saturday morning and can watch them as many times as I like – usually a lot. 🙂
Okay, I’ll bite. Why in the world do you think that? I mean, they already hired the season 8 showrunner! Season 8 is 99.9% happening.
No show on The CW (except America’s Next Top Model) has been officially renewed, not even The Vampire Diaries and that’s their number one show. So don’t let going into the final episodes fool you. Upfronts are May 18th I believe. That’s the absolute latest date it will become official.
I read an article similar to this in The NY Times. Sponsers would rather advertise on shows in real time. Anyway this is all very interesting for me because I’m not in the demo, but I watch half my TV shows online. I watch Supernatural in real time, but Fringe and Grimm on Hulu. All this has to change already since TV watching has changed so much in the past ten years.
I’m with you there! Normally The CW would have early renewals by now, but for some reason pilot season is running late this year and they haven’t gotten all the pilots back. They’re still trying to figure out what shows they want back next year. The Vampire Diaries and Supernatural are a sure thing, but The CW announces all their early renewals at once and other shows aren’t so certain. I suspect early renewals will be announced a week or two before upfronts.
Daisymae
Advertisers will pay higher ad rates for live viewers, absolutely. We don’t often see live numbers anymore, really haven’t since DVR hit now we see live same day which include a sizable amount of DVR use.
For example in adults 18-49 we are averaging right around .74 for the season. But about .20 of that is from same day DVR use. Out of live plus 7, ad buyers will only consider 3 of the 7 days for ads. But luckily on average 9pm shows will have 88% of all DVR use occur with in the first three days. But unfortunately only a bit over 20% on average watch commercials when they use DVR. So while we get almost half of our viewers from DVR only about 20 or so percent actually help earn revenue for the CW.
Those who legally stream the show from the CW all must watch commercials. But since the CW doesn’t get specific income and age breakdown of viewers or even multiple views from each stream ad buyers pay much less then an ad they would pay for on broadcast tv. But unlike DVR you can’t skip them, so while you can get up go the bathroom, get something to eat, ect most of the people actually bring in some revenue.
It’s because of this that the CW is bumping up its hw fast you can stream from them. Eventually they will be able to start getting demo/ income specific data that will eventually put them on an even level with what rates the broadcasters can charge for live viewing. Hopefully they will get their is year or two.
Also don’t forget us fans OUTSIDE US. We love the series too! Even though all we have are crazy ear bleeding dubs and super expansive DVD sets which most of us choose to not buy but borrow, we love the show 😆
Freya : Hear, hear. I’m out in India and EVERYONE I know watches SPN on Star World channel, it’s wildly popular out here. Yeah, the DVDs are expensive, not to mention unavailable in the stores (we order them online) but we’re all still stark raving crazy about this show. We’re only on season 5 so most of us are downloading 6 and 7 episodes like crazy.
Season 8 is underway and very much alive… Jensen and Jared have signed on for seasons nine and ten- so do your happy dance!
I know this is an older post but thought I would throw my two cents in. One reason they are losing viewers is lack of cable coverage. Our cable company (the only one in town) does not carry CW. Which means I have to wait for Vampire Diaries and Supernatural to come on Netflix or watch them online. Sucks if im honest!