Let’s Talk About Supernatural’s Ratings: Season 7 Edition
Once or twice a year, I go through how this crazy old ratings system works in the US. Supernatural’s “soft†ratings lately have gotten a lot of people worried and I’ve been getting a lot of messages. A few have even suggested dusting off the old “Save Our Show!†posters from the days when a fan effort was truly needed. I’m going to help calm some fears here.
I’ve been researching lately how much Supernatural has made an impact internationally (thank you all for your amazing responses) and trying to pull together some responsible math for how much approximately Supernatural is making worldwide on the first run and second run syndication markets (it’s a lot). That article isn’t ready yet (you all have been keeping me busy on this site!) but it’s impressive. Supernatural has reached the golden goose number, as in number of episodes, where the show can now really make some serious cash elsewhere and not just sustain itself enough to cover a yearly budget.
For now, I’m going to list some of the common concerns that people have shared with me and try to answer the questions the best I can in pure geekdom. You know how much I love this topic!
Supernatural isn’t getting anywhere near the live ratings they used to. They’re really bad now. It’s going to get cancelled for sure!
Part of that is a true statement, the first sentence. Supernatural isn’t getting anywhere near the live ratings they used to. Neither is all of network TV. The traditional Nielsen rating system grows more and more obsolete every year. It stopped being a true measure of viewers years ago. People are watching their shows in alternate forms now. DVRs, DVDs, iTunes, Online, illegal downloads (okay we’ll gloss that one over). Live TV is passe. ESPECIALLY on Fridays. So much so that aging shows, which aren’t the ratings blockbusters anymore, but viable enough where the network wants to rack up some extra episodes so they can be sold in syndication, end up on Fridays. Need examples? Law & Order, CSI NY, Chuck, Fringe, Smallville, and Supernatural. I’m sure there are more, but that’s off the top of my head.
Live network ratings are declining on average about 9 or 10 percent a year. For The CW, that number is far worse. So far this season, it’s down 33 percent over last season. For example, this time last year, Gossip Girl brought in a 1.2 in adults 18-49. Monday night, it drew .6. This year, it’s really bad for many shows. Unless you’re CBS. That’s because their average viewership is older and watching live TV is still a habit.
The idea is as long as you’re one of the top shows on your network, you’re okay. So far, Supernatural is getting outperformed by some on more watched nights, in live ratings anyway, but they’re still in the pack and not the worst. When the most recent DVR +7 ratings were factored in (those that watched on their DVRs within 7 days), Supernatural finished only behind The Vampire Diaries in 18-49. Their numbers grew a whopping 63%.
Advertisers don’t care about DVR numbers. They only want live viewers.
Not true, yet true. Advertisers pay based on the DVR +3 ratings (Live ratings plus DVR viewings after 3 days). Great, what are those? We don’t know. Nielsen doesn’t allow those ratings to be released publicly. Are they better than Live ratings plus same day DVR? Some experts say not. I have no reason to doubt that.
However, in terms of finding out how many people are viewing alternatively, there are very few measurements out there. Online viewing and iTunes sales aren’t released either. DVR +7 ratings can at least tell if your show is getting watched at all. In Supernatural‘s case, it is. Does that matter for a show’s renewal chances? In certain cases, it could. It supposedly did for Fringe last year. In Supernatural’s case, it’s all for PR, to prove people actually still watch the show.
Then Supernatural is in danger by lower ratings! Not so fast. This is a show in it’s seventh season. There are currently 125 episodes out there on the open market (seasons 1 – 6) and another 23 coming. Shows are paid for BY EPISODE. So yes, Supernatural is making more money out there in international markets and second run syndication than shows like The Vampire Diaries simply because they have more episodes.
Renewal or cancel decisions are going to weigh heavier with ratings on a show like Nikita, which is in its second season and doesn’t have the vast back catalog, compared to a veteran show like Supernatural. If any “save our show†campaigns should be firing up right now, it’s Nikita fans.
Here’s a great syndication case study. Look at Smallville. That show went ten seasons. Ratings dropped like a rock. It once got 8 million viewers live. Then it bottomed out at around 5.5 million. When it went out on The CW after season ten, it was barely pulling 2 million. Creatively the show struggled in its later years, especially around season 8. So why did it keep getting renewed? For one, it was always one of the top performers on the network, overall ratings wise anyway. In the network target 18-34 demo though, it struggled a lot compared to other CW shows and often got beat by other networks easily. Plus it drew more men than the coveted female demographic. It held up for The CW enough though.
You see, Smallville made a lot of money in international syndication (still does). By the time the show was finished, Warner Brothers had 217 episodes to sell in second run syndication. At an average of around $400,000 an episode, that’s almost $90 million per deal. Granted, I’m not sure a lot of networks will buy all 217 episodes, but you get the idea. Plus, anything earned in second run is now pure profit with no show production costs. It was a franchise that had huge income potential written all over it once it hit FIVE seasons. Warner Brothers milked it. Guess what other show is on their list now?
Supernatural has an assured 148 episodes to sell right now. You don’t think Warner Brothers is thinking 200? Smallville ended because Welling and the producers were ready to move on. The same is true for The Gilmore Girls, which was one of The CW’s top rated show when it ended. The actors had enough. The same is happening this year for One Tree Hill. That’s what will end Supernatural. From everything we’ve heard so far, everyone is looking forward to a season eight. After that, who knows?
This isn’t just a CW thing. Once a show hits that five year mark, they’ll keep it going as long as possible. Look at the Law & Order franchise and all the CSI shows. I mean, Law and Order: SVU is in its 13th season. It’s not a ratings blockbuster, but one of the better shows on NBC. Plus at 13 seasons, that’s plenty of episodes and counting for syndication.
I have this little fantasy myself that when The CW’s ten year affiliate agreements expire after the 2015-2016 season, the network will fold and Supernatural will go out with it’s network, being the only show to run from beginning to end. That’s only me though. You do have to wonder with live ratings crashing across the board on The CW, will alternative forms of viewing be enough for them? A system should be in place by 2012 to measure all forms of viewing, so we’ll see what happens.
The CW doesn’t make any money off of Supernatural’s syndication. Only sagging ad revenue. They won’t want to keep the show.
The CW doesn’t follow the same business model as other networks exactly. The joint owners of the network, CBS and Warner Brothers, have figured out that their network is always going to run at a loss. Advertising alone for their shows just isn’t going to cut it. It didn’t on their bigger WB and UPN networks. It’s a broken model. So, they’ve decided that any loss on the network (which they split) will by offset by a lot when they sell their younger skewing shows on the international market.
So far, they have been proved very right. All the shows make money for the parent networks. Shows with large catalogues like One Tree Hill, Smallville, and Supernatural (add Gossip Girl to that list at the end of this year) really make a lot of money, but the others do well too, covering the budgets and a little more. CBS has their shows, Warner Brothers has theirs, and if either want their show to continue, the other won’t object. As long as the producers want their show to continue, it normally will. It’s the newer shows (aka Life Unexpected, Reaper) that have the greatest danger. Making marginal dollars now with no syndication potential later makes the cost of making the show not that attractive.
If sagging ratings aren’t a major factor for renewal, how will TPTB get the message that their creative decisions suck?
I LOVE this one. This person, who shall remain nameless, even realized that fans can be victims are their own success.
Networks really don’t care about quality. Haven’t you noticed? As long as they can make money selling advertising, they don’t care. That’s why cheap and trashy reality is so popular.
This part boils down to how receptive the producers are to their fans. A fan revolt could lead to a cancellation of a show, but it takes a lot. Heroes is the recent example that comes to mind. Heroes still went into its 4th season, but it struggled creatively after season one. It has to be something huge for a fan revolt to derail a show. Let’s say it didn’t happen to Heroes because angry Nathan Petrelli fans got vocal. The whole formula of the show went off and never found it’s way back.
TPTB should want to consider the fans. This all boils down to legacy. They shouldn’t want to hurt the franchise they worked so hard to build. They can’t please everyone, but when the complaints get repetitive and dragged out over a long amount of time, the message should be received. I’m not saying it always works that way, but fan input is what keeps them honest. They can’t always listen to us, but overall trends should be examined. Plus, they do want some form of quality to exist for second run syndication for years to come. Not that Chris Carter followed that philosophy with the last two seasons of The X-Files, but it should be considered.
Well, that’s me hitting the tip of the iceberg. I hope this has been helpful. My overall message is here, don’t try to judge ratings on a season seven show the way you do a season two show. Different standards apply. The same is true with The CW compared to other networks. It’s just not the same. Loyal fans do matter too. Look at Chuck. That show has only survived because of intense fan efforts. So, decisions aren’t purely made on numbers.
Got any more questions? Send them my way and I’ll do what I can to answer them.
Excellent analysis, Alice.
I know a lot of people are agitated by the ratings, and I wish they were a bit higher, but the Neilsens are rather obsolete and out of date anyways.
I think you nailed it just right on Supernatural’s demise in the future. It won’t be ratings that cancel it. It’ll be the cast and writing staff deciding that it is time to call it a day and move on to the next project(s). I don’t see that happening yet, obviously. Everyone from Jared and Jensen to Sera have all said that they’re planning a season 8. They have said they’ve had plans for 7 to be it if need be, but it sounds like they’re ready to move into season 8 more than anything.
I do think the fans have done great efforts as late with tweeting the sponsors, and while they don’t factor as much against the syndication dollars, it still gives TPTB the notice that the fans are there and caring.
I look forward to another synopsis of the ratings in the future. I don’t really know much about this, first time really following closely on not just SPN but a few other programs to get a feel.
Please bring back Supernatural and put it on at night, due to the fact that many of us work.
Alice, thanks for this. I really appreciate you taking all this time to break it down. I really do think that the antiquated Nielsen system needs to be over hauled. It just doesn’t apply to today’s viewers habits.
Also, the CW is a pay station on some cable systems, unlike the other networks which are part of the basic cable package. That really works against them, too.
Thanks Alice, that was highly informative. I never did understand how ratings and such got tabulated. Would be nice if SPN went out with the network, as long as it stays a great show. I felt “Smallville” should have folded sooner than it did. I watched it to the end because I’m faithful, but I would do other things (like reading comments on WFB) while watching!
Thanks for the article Alice. The ratings system is something I’ve never understood very well, and this is a help.
Good to know. Right now my superpower seems to be that any show I like will be doomed to fail… with the exception of Supernatural. Reaper? Loved it. Human Target? Yep, me too. Firefly? Guilty.High Incident? Yes, there seems to be a pattern here. I dunno what it is, but if the networks ever wanted to cash in, they’d hire me to consult and if I like a show, they should scrap it before it even gets off the page. Mind you, there is the occasional show that I can stand that seems to survive, then ends, Third Watch, NYPD Blue, Married W/C.
And there are shows that survive no matter how much they annoy me- Desperate Housewives, CSI anything- gah! My wife used to work in a lab, and lemme tell you, it was mind numbing work. I don’t care what kind of fancy soundtrack they put in the background, stuff like they do on those shows takes months, they do not wear the spiffy/ skimpy clothing, and going in the field, with guns? YR. I believe Dean said it best when he said “I hate procedural police shows”.
I’ve killed my own fair share of shows. Life on Mars anyone? Seriously.
I think it’s fascinating how many cop shows are on and essentially they’re largely all the same with small detail changes really.
I’ve gotten into established shows lately. It’s harder for me to kill a long running program than a new one.
Yes, you can’t swing a cat for all the cop shows on the tube, although I wouldn’t necessarily call it fascinating, mind numbing would be accurate. You pitch a show and say “cop drama” and producers seem to eat that up. Don’t forget lawyer shows, court room dramas are all the rage too, yet everyone ducks out on jury duty.
I am sticking to Supernatural, it is outside the norm, and the Food Network. Iron Chef has been on for years, and with the obesity epidemic sweeping the continent, I can’t see shows like D3 getting cancelled anytime soon.
Woof.
What I mean by fascinating is just how popular they “seem” to be. I’ve watched a few of them in the past, but I haven’t in years. Closest I come? Psych. Honestly.
We do watch a lot of Food Network in my house, though.
I’m frequent watcher of HGTV and especially House Hunters myself. It’s perfect background noise while I’m blogging!
Thanks for the explanation Alice. In the past I never really paid that much attention to the ratings for what ever show I was watching. Shows I liked never seemed to be what the masses were watching and they soon disappeared. Guess I like odd ball stuff. It wasn’t until Supernatural appeared that I even paid attention to what the magic numbers were and what they meant for the show. Then I was afraid that once again I had found a terrific show and sooner or later it was going to disappear. Once SPN got syndicated I finally relaxed. Now the network was going make money off the show and giving it more episodes would only increase its revenue down the road.
I do watch it live, but I also DVR it, so even if my “live” number doesnt matter maybe my DVR number will(When I watch it again the next day). Hopefully…
Thanks for this thoughtful article. 🙂
Thanks everyone for your insightful comments. I’ve been a bit of a split personality on this issue as of late. On one hand I’m pushing for the ratings drive but on the other I’m trying to calm people because SPN is a big money-making franchise. As long as SPN is pulling in more money than it spends in production costs it won’t get cancelled. Sounds simple enough? I guess we’ll see how J2 and the producers feel about a season 9 and 10.It’s always nice to dream!
It is very interesting about the ratings system in the modern era. I have a few friends that hate watching live TV because of all the commercials, they prefer to DVR the show and fast forward thru’ to the good bits.
For myself, I like watching live TV because it becomes an event as other people in other households are watching the same thing. I have copies of Raiders of the Lost Ark and any John Wayne movie, but if the Duke or Indy comes on the tube, I’m there. Guess I’m old fashion that way. But I always figured that the commercials were what paid the bills around the studio. I suppose inflation made that a little skewed from what I understand of the explanation of the ratings systems now.
Woof.
Thanks for the article, Alice. I always love your ratings articles, because they explain things in such a clean and clear manner. I’m glad to hear that Supernatural is doing well. I’ve long subscribed to the theory that if a show can make it to season five, they’re good to go for a bit longer (this hasn’t always worked for me i.e. Angel).
The rating system of today is very outdated as far as I can tell for your explaination. Reality is, as you say, that live TV isn’t the most prevelant form of viewing anymore. In my case (not that my ratings contributions count anyway being as I’m Canadian) I cannot watch SPN live right now and have no choice but to watch via the Internet. This should be considered when looking to whether a show is successful or not.
I recently said to someone that I suspected Supernatural would reach it’s end because the actors would grow tired of it and, perhaps, seeing as the two main leads are newly weds, want time off to start their families, etc. in the next few years (I said this [b]before[/b] the news about Jared, I swear).
In my opinion, unrelated to ratings, the CW is a network more inclined to give it’s shows a chance to flourish as opposed to say, Fox, which (again in my opinion) likes to unnecessarily stick their fingers in the pot and exercise creative authority, bounce the show all over in terms of time slot and then yank it before viewers can even figure out what has happened to it (example: Dollhouse and Firefly – in both cases they changed the order of how early episodes were rolled out and affected the overall run of the show as a result).
Anyways, thanks for the look at the ratings Alice! As long as Supernatural is being made it will have this viewer tuning in!
The fact it’s even necessary to “reassure” fans is telling. My family has a box: it’s tuned to Fringe for live viewing. After last week’s dismal effort I don’t think I’ll bother to record the show, especially with Grimm starting 10/28. A lot of viewers simply aren’t interest in the totally redundant rehash they’re watching and the fact the show fell back on its old default of brotherly bickering to inject tension only three episodes into the season doesn’t say much for Gamble’s assurances that Sam and Dean would be back on the same page and also proves the show’s need for regular OCs to advance the plot and characterization. I’ll DVR again once Castiel is back since that has been confirmed.
[quote]The fact it’s even necessary to “reassure” fans is telling. My family has a box: it’s tuned to Fringe for live viewing. After last week’s dismal effort I don’t think I’ll bother to record the show, especially with Grimm starting 10/28. A lot of viewers simply aren’t interest in the totally redundant rehash they’re watching and the fact the show fell back on its old default of brotherly bickering to inject tension only three episodes into the season doesn’t say much for Gamble’s assurances that Sam and Dean would be back on the same page and also proves the show’s need for regular OCs to advance the plot and characterization. I’ll DVR again once Castiel is back since that has been confirmed.[/quote] I know with my Sister we always have conflict, but I guess that goes with the territory of having siblings. Actually I think Sam in Dean Relationship has been better, things is not going to be rose all the time cause there hunter’s. I do understand where you coming from, but I do know some people hate it now cause Castiel is not there. Are you one of them?
I did see that deal, and got real numbers through Variety and The Wall Street Journal. SPN is going to be making a lot more than other CW shows. $700,000 per episode. I was working on my numbers article tonight. Hopefully it’ll be out soon.
[quote]I did see that deal, and got real numbers through Variety and The Wall Street Journal. SPN is going to be making a lot more than other CW shows. $700,000 per episode. I was working on my numbers article tonight. Hopefully it’ll be out soon.[/quote]
[quote]I did see that deal, and got real numbers through Variety and The Wall Street Journal. SPN is going to be making a lot more than other CW shows. $700,000 per episode. I was working on my numbers article tonight. Hopefully it’ll be out soon.[/quote]
Hey, here is a supernatural fan from India Alice. I actually always download the show illegally, cause I dont have any other option. This is the first American TV show I have started watching. Is there anything that I can do to support supernatural from getting cancelled. There are no DVDs available here and not even magazines.Hardly people know about the American show here,I want to contribute something. Tell me what can I do?
i’m love to see Supernatural go on till
season 10 like Smallville
Thanks for the explanation.
Not taking into consideration all the people who watch on the internet I wouldn’t count Supernatural out there up for two Peoples Choice awards the fans put them on TV guide last year even if they don’t get another season which the CW wants and they have said at cons, 7 years is a good run but I don’t see it being cancelled Nikita yes and Secret Circle they haven’t even been in the top 5 but Supernatural has been this season. Wish people wouldn’t be all gone over ratings it isn’t why CW keeps the show it is because it is a good show and they know it.
you are a true life saver i was getting scarred. i really was. this show is my life and i honestly dont know what i’d do if it were ever to be canceled, you know other then go on a murder spree.
I really do think that Supernatural is one of the best series out there and I hope that they have plenty of seasons! If you were able to watch the most recent episode Castiel is back!! I think that the plot is interesting! I just really like this show and I also would be upset if it were cancelled.
Supernatural is an excellent series with the most outstanding actors. The story line has been intense,suspensful, with some comedy and emotional scenes. Its been a long run but it cant end here. We need season 8 or even 9 to wrap it up.
I was wondering (and hoping) if there is any chance of Supernatural the movie? That would be an opportunity to cash in all the fans out there, whether they watch live tv or not.