I often feel when I bring up the topic of ratings, I’m beating a dead horse. Probably because I track ratings daily for fun and often know when shows are in trouble and when they aren’t. Plus I’ve written about ratings enough on this site. I haven’t been raising any red flags for my favorite show, that’s for sure. Still, February is a jittery time for many, especially “Supernatural” fans. Those days of being a bubble show are still deeply etched in people’s minds and worry begins as we get closer to that almighty early renewal announcement that has come the past three seasons. In the past week though I’ve got several messages from worried “Supernatural†fans about bad ratings this past Friday. Combine that worry with the fact that “Fringe†is on Fridays now against “Supernatural,†it’s time to do an update and set minds at ease.
February is a strange time of year. This is usually the time that ratings start to fall for all shows and all networks. I’m not sure why that’s the case. Seasonal affective disorder? Show fatigue? How about the fact that scheduling is all over the map this time of year? Who knows, but networks know it. Their expectations are lower in February and usually ratings are affecting renewal decisions at this time only for the bubble shows.
Here’s what networks like to see in their Winter ratings. Consistency over a number of weeks. Things are going to drop off a little, but small drops are certainly far less discouraging that larger ones. Comparisons can be done with the previous year (assuming the show maintained the same time slot otherwise not) but nowadays there’s another fact. TV viewership overall for network television is declining every year. So, if the Live + Same Day DVR ratings for a show declines 10 percent over last year, but viewership in that same category overall for that network declines 15 percent, the show is ahead of the curve. “Supernatural†is having to prove itself in a timeslot that was previously held by an “America’s Next Top Model†repeat. Needless to say, it’s doing extremely well.
18-49 demo numbers however are more important than overall viewers. This might be a staggering fact to many of you, but “Glee†actually makes a lot more money in advertising than “NCIS†and it gets half the viewers. That’s because “Glee†gets a far higher rating in 18-49 and especially 18-34, which means more lucrative advertising contracts. It’s not a fair system, but that’s the way things are.
This is an important point for that’s what affects “Supernatural†at The CW. Overall ratings doesn’t matter. It hasn’t for years. If Supernatural one week gets a 1.0 in the demo and 2 million viewers and the next week gets 1.0 in the demo and 2.5 million viewers, the network doesn’t care. That’s considered no change. They make their money off that 1.0, not that 2.5 million. “Gossip Girl†actually makes more money in advertising than “Supernatural†despite having much lower overall ratings. Why? They are big in 18-34 females by a lot. Normally that show gets a 2.0 or better in 18-34 women. “Supernatural†averages around a 1.0. However, “Supernatural†usually gets 1.0 or 1.1 in 18-49 (on a Friday where there is less advertising competition) while “Gossip Girl†gets around a 0.8 or 0.9. So it’s up to The CW to capitalize on that difference when selling advertising. It’s amazing how they don’t. Honest, “Supernatural†has the cheapest advertising rates on the schedule. They have never made money for The CW in advertising vs. the license fee cost. Like I said, it’s a bizarre system.
Anyway, I’m straying a bit and adding worry where it’s not there. You see, “Supernatural†has other benefits for The CW. There’s a big reason why “Fringe†is in deep trouble and “Supernatural†is not. Both are made by Warner Brothers, that’s why. Still not seeing it? It’s their networks. The CW is half owned by Warner Brothers. By keeping “Supernatural†on the schedule on their own network Warner Brothers continues to make a lot of money in syndication, DVDs, iTunes, etc. “Supernatural†believe it or not does far better than most shows in DVD sales, including the big names. Warner Brothers makes money right now doing the same thing for “Fringe†but Fox sees none of that. All Fox sees is a show with rapidly declining viewership, that’s very heavy on non-lucrative DVR ratings and no potential for those “Glee†and “American Idol†advertising dollars. What’s their incentive to keep the show going so a third party company can make money off it? Especially when this is a strong network with a wealth of programming to use as an alternative. Warner Brothers could accept a reduced license fee but at what point does that reduced fee make the show no longer cost effective? “Fringe†fans have a big right to worry right now.
If there’s any concern right now, it’s the fact that The CW ratings lately have been in a freefall. Things have gotten very bad in the last few weeks and there have been few bright spots all winter, especially since the network took most of January off. All of their shows have declined but out of all of them, Friday nights is holding the strongest. Just look at the ratings the last couple of weeks. A key to a show’s renewal is how it holds up against THEIR OWN NETWORK’s shows, not other networks. “Supernatural’s†ratings in the 18-49 demo for The CW is tied for 2nd with “Smallville,†a show that is ending this season. The CW cannot afford to lose both shows in the same year because they don’t have new programs waiting in their vault (or money to produce them). One does have to wonder how low The CW owners are willing to let ratings go before ending this network. I think there’s still some room and a few years left, but man, these numbers are getting bad.
The Vampire Diaries – 2.79 million viewers, 1.3 18-49, 1.5 18-34, 2.0 18-34 women
(previous week) 3.22 million viewers, 1.5 18-49, 1.8 18-34, 2.4 18-34 women
Nikita – 1.89 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.7 18-34, 1.0 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.38 million viewers, 0.9 18-49. 0.8 18-34, 1.0 18-34 women
One Tree Hill – 1.60 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.9 18-34, 1.3 18-34 women
(previous week – special episode) 2.42 million viewers, 1.2 18-49, 1.6 18-34, 2.4 18-34 women
Hellcats – 1.72 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 1.2 18-34 women
(previous week) 1.80 million viewers, 0.8 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.4 18-34 women
90210 (last night) – 1.38 million viewers, 0.7 18-49
(previous week) – 1.75 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 1.0 18-34, 1.5 18-34 women
Gossip Girl (last night) – 1.31 million viewers, 0.7 18-49
(previous week) – 1.62 million viewers, 0.8 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.8 18-34 women
Friday night:
Smallville – 2.34 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 0.6 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.37 million viewers, 1.0 18-49, 0.9 18-34, 0.8 18-34 women
Supernatural – 1.97 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 0.8 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.25 million viewers, 1.0 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.3 18-34 women
Like I mentioned earlier though, everyone is in a freefall (NBC and ABC are looking particularly bad). Look at these “Fringe” numbers for the last 3 weeks. These numbers are cause for alarm, especially since the rest of their network is performing stronger.
(1/28) 4.53 million viewers 1.9 18-49
(2/4) 4.25 million viewers 1.6 18-49
(2/11) 3.73 million viewers 1.4 18-49
What’s my point? Relax “Supernatural†fans. The show isn’t doing any worse than the trend and it’s still a top performer for its network and studio. Chances are the ratings will fall worse as the spring hits. That’s the norm for all networks though this time of year and especially this year. No one has reason to worry. Hopefully by that time an early renewal will be official.
Thanks, Alice, for another great article. I agree with you. I don’t think there is any reason that the CW wouldn’t renew SPN for next year. It’s one of their strong shows that has proved it can hold its own on Friday night and not many shows have been able to do that. The only thing that would cause me concern is if the CW network folded, but I think that Warner Bros. would do everything to get this show moved and not let it go down without a fight. Of course, that’s just my opinion.
I’m more worried about CW lasting another year. Who knows if that will happen?
Sure, one more year easily. I say a couple more. If they can’t find good shows to replace their aging ones though, they’re in trouble.
I hope you’re right. The idea of no more Sam and Dean is more terrifying for me than all monsters the boys fought throughout the show put together. 😥
yes, i’ve been wondering for a while now if the cw network itself is in trouble and may fold …
Thanks. This is an interesting read – definitely food for thought.
There’s only one possible network I think would pick up Supernatural if The CW didn’t have it. TNT. That’s where the syndicated shows are airing right now and doing very well. TNT is committed to doing original programming 7 nights a week and aren’t there yet, and they’re owned by Warner Brothers’ parent company, Time Warner. Having said that though, Supernatural would only get 13 episodes a season on cable. I don’t think it’s going anywhere but The CW for now.
The CW always shoots six pilots and picks up two for series. Maybe 3, but that third is usually for a midseason thing. Life Unexpected was like that. They won’t take more than that. They can’t afford it.
You’ve got to look at The CW in the future too, their shows are aging. One Tree Hill might not make it to next year. It isn’t ratings, it’s the cast and producers don’t want to do the show anymore. Also, Gossip Girl is going through the same thing. The cast wants to move on. I predict they have one season left, which gives them five. After that, the fatigue that is showing now will be huge.
Supernatural, once season seven becomes official, will be on a year to year basis after that. It all at that point becomes an issue with cost and cast/producer fatigue. They could go ten years, they could end after seven. It’ll be an entire “wait and see” thing. I don’t see Supernatural ever ending over ratings. They are in the same position as Smallville in season seven.
Why was Fringe put against Supernatural? Because American Idol was coming back and Fox desperately needed a timeslot to dump Fringe. Their Friday nights in the fall had spectacularly failed. They were losing to the CW! They didn’t care what it was up against.
You know where I’d like to see SN? On FX with the rest of the ‘guy’ shows like Justified and Sons of Anarchy. CW is such a sissy network for the Winchesters to be on!
Thank you for explaining the numbers. I don´t live in the States so it is up to you guys to make the ratings work.
Why doesn´t go Fringe to the CW the hour befor Supernatural? I like Fringe and I don´t want to see it canceled.
As usual an amazing article, Alice.
And I agree with you 100% (was there any doubt about me agreeing with you?? Never!!).
I do believe the only reason Supernatural won’t be renewed if any cast member doesn’t agree with that! But as far as I can see – everybody is very happy and excited (shall I say) for a new season…
So I’m betting my money on a 7th Season of Supernatural…
Also, I just can’t figure out my life without it… I need “a little” more of my weekly dose of the J2 + Misha + Bobby + any other cast member!!!!!!
Take care.
Clarice ; }
Thanks for that Alice.
Your knowledge of the ratings business calms my fears that always arise while waiting for the renewal announcement.
Couldn’t bear to not see my boys any more!
Never understood the ratings games as how do they know if I’m watching or not (even though they wouldn’t care as I’m not in their demographics). Don’t the older viewers have more money to spend than the youngun’s? Bizarre!
The CW’s Tuesday night ratings seemed to stabilize this week. Monday still seemed iffy, but the whole night was down. I hope TVD & Nikita rebound. tomorrow.
Its really amazing how well SN is doing on Fridays.
I still wish we’d hear about the early pick-up. It just makes me happy when I know there will be more SN. 🙂
I’m thinking that besides SN, TVD (naturally), GG and 90210 will get early pick-ups. They might wait on Hellcats & Nikita to the upfronts. But TVBTN has all of them as likely to be renewed.
Actually, Eric Kripke only pitched this show to The WB network. He had a development deal with Warner Brothers and this was his grand idea. When you read his interviews on the matter, his original pitch was rejected and he went for the “Route 66” idea, two brothers in a classic car in a road show. They went for that. Sounds like he was truly winging it at the time! It does make for a fun story considering what has evolved.
I agree, I don’t want Fox to EVER touch a SciFi show again. Unfortunately, NBC isn’t doing the genre any favors either. Cable seems to be the way of the future for SciFi.
LOL have you ever seen Sons of Anarchy? It is far, far more ‘adult’ than anything on the CW is allowed to be – nudity, language, violence — I seriously doubt that a little gore would bother them overmuch. Kurt Sutter, the show runner has had nothing but good to say about FX in terms of letting him do his thing creatively.
And gosh, didn’t you hear Kevin Riley? He’s not steamed up about SPN — heck, to hear him tell it – he doesn’t even know when Supernatural is on! (Yeah, right.)
Its just that, to me, SPN – its themes, actors, production design – has so much more in common with SOA or Justified than it does with the overblown, super-colored & superficial oppulence of Gossip Girl.
Hi Alice, I’m a bit late to this party :-* … Thanks so much for putting this together. I’m always interested in these numbers, especially since I don’t have any insight to these ratings from my standpoint in Germany.
I wasn’t worried, though. Love, Jas
Erm — my point was that Supernatural already has as much gore (or more) as SOA and deals with very similar family themes. SOA isn’t about ‘gang life’ per se. Its Hamlet on motorcycles.
But anyway – I don’t understand your comment about Gossip Girl. Are you saying that I’m wrong? That Gossip Girl and Supernatural DO have similarities? I’m not familiar with the detail of the story lines as I don’t watch it, but frankly I find it highly unlikely that the themes of the two shows are at all similar. And I know from the incessant commercials that the production design, costumes and lighting are light years apart.
So, my original point remains that Supernatural already has more in common with the shows on FX than it does with the shows on the CW.
Supernatural did SUPER this week!! Its the number #2 show on the CW for the week of 2/14 – 2/18! Woohoo!!! C’mon Cw! Hurry up with the early pick-up for season seven already!!! 😀
Everyone need to remember that the standard television series contract for talent leads in the US is 7 years in length. It goes year after year at that point (or 3 years if the show’s numbers warrant it). So our 2 hunky leads are contracted for another season at the very least.
Of course the studio and/or network can cancel the series at any time they wish (again an industry standard). As she points out though at this point they are unlikely to do so.
As far as the show moving to another network that is also HIGHLY unlikely so no one needs to speculate on that eventuality until The CW folds and closes shop. Also as previously pointed out there are any number of in-house networks it could switch to and in fact previous seasons re-runs are broadcast twice daily on TNT right now.
So start setting your money aside for Season 7 blu-ray’s or dvd’s because we’ll be seeing those on store shelves in 19 months time.
Another tidbit for everyone to consider – torrent downloads. A pretty good sign of how the show is doing in overseas markets that don’t get broadcast at the same time as here in the states. When i looked Sunday night there were over 4000 people downloading Friday nights episode. Compared to other shows that’s pretty high considering that’s 1 snapshot of 1 moment in time.