Fringe vs. Supernatural: Everybody Loses!
As many of you may know, the Fox network released it’s mid season schedule today. In a major shakeup, “American Idol†is going to Wednesdays and Thursdays and “Fringe†is being bounced to Fridays at 9pm, once again opposite “Supernatural.” The current show in that slot, “The Good Guys,†has been losing to “Supernatural†easily in demo ratings and several times in overall ratings. Yes, Fox has been losing Fridays to The CW.
I get it, networks compete. Fox has been finishing 5th on Fridays. When “American Idol†returns in the winter they have a lot more material to work with on the schedule. But why was “Fringe†moved to that timeslot? Didn’t Fox decimate “Fringe’s†ratings last year when it was moved opposite “Supernatural†Thursdays at 9pm? Didn’t history prove that ratings for both shows went down when that happened? Why compete two Warner Brothers produced sci-fi shows at the same time when there are plenty of other timeslots?
That’s the pickle here. Networks claim DVR ratings matter, but that’s a lie based solely on how they make decisions. They exist for PR purposes only. Advertisers don’t care or pay a lot for DVR ratings beyond same day. However, when you take a show and pit it against another similar show that shares the same audience, how is that avoiding a DVR situation? One gets watched live, one gets recorded and both get their numbers diluted. Both “Fringe†and “Supernatural†right now are pulling great DVR +7 numbers, especially in 18-49 demo gains.
So who’s getting the raw end of the deal here? My money is on “Fringe.†As of right now, season seven for “Supernatural†is all but a lock. The actors have been signed through the end of season seven and there’s no way that The CW can afford to lose both “Smallville†and “Supernatural†in the same year. Plus, “Supernatural†at least in 18-49 ratings is one of the best performers on the network. They’re also doing this on a Friday where expectations are nil. The show is also making a lot of money for its corporate parent Warner Brothers now.
The picture isn’t so rosy for “Fringe.†For one, their lead in is the less than compatible “Kitchen Nightmares.†“Smallville†and “Supernatural†have been together for years and have proven to be perfectly compatible. “Supernatural†keeps over 90 percent of “Smallville’s†lead in overall (sometimes 100 percent) and keeps up (sometimes exceeding) in the demos. Expectations are higher on Fox and “Fringe†hasn’t been delivering. Will those expectations be high on Friday? Hard to say. DVR ratings have been good for “Fringe†and a move to Fridays could be considered a symbol of hope. They’re out of harms way and should be able to beat live what “Dollhouse†and “The Good Guys†have pulled in that slot, right? The question is do they just have to beat or do they at lease have to pull live what they’re doing in their Thursday timeslot? Both “Smallville†and “Supernatural†have been able to do that since they were moved to Fridays, but they have proven to be rare exceptions.
Fox hasn’t given “Fringe†much of a chance. It makes sense that “Fringe†would be shuffled to more impossible time slots since the show is produced by out of network Warner Brothers instead of in house 20th Century Fox. However, moving it to Thursdays at 9 pm last year was hardly a vote of confidence. Yes, it boosted Fox’s ratings for 18-49 in the timeslot, but considering the reality show that was there before, just about any scripted show could have done that. The problem is “Fringe†couldn’t beat the other shows in it’s timeslot, which is an expectation on the Fox network. Considering the competition was “Grey’s Anatomy,†“CSI,†and “The Office†the show failed before an episode aired.
The real loser though is the Sci-fi genre show in general. “Fringe†is filmed in Vancouver along with “Smallville,†“Supernatural,†“V,†and “Human Target.†The latter two are in deep trouble too. Are “V,†“Human Target,†and “Fringe†failing because of lofty expectations by their networks, neglect, or just poor quality? Can a genre show not succeed anymore on a major network in a prime time slot? Will these shows be relegated to being darlings of cable from now on? The budgets are half on cable what they are on network, but if “Smallville†and “Supernatural†have proved anything it’s genre shows can indeed thrive with smaller audiences on a smaller budget.
I blame part of it on “Lost†syndrome. The truth is a genre show doesn’t grow an audience. They have to have big audiences from the beginning and must keep them or the show is bound to fail. “Lost†was the exception, not the rule. That problem doesn’t exist on cable networks or The CW. The smaller networks have the luxury of being more patient, especially if the shows are produced in house. Genre shows are big with DVRs, online viewing, and DVD sales. That’s because viewing habits for genre shows are people sitting down and knocking out several episodes in one sitting. They also get big buzz and residual income on the international syndication market. They don’t syndicate well in second run but that hasn’t exactly been a big money maker for a lot of shows in the last few years.
So why do the major networks bother with a show like “Fringe?†That’s my fear. They’re not going to anymore. It’s all trending toward closed end procedurals and reality and has been for years. Sure, every once in a while an “X-Files†or “Heroes†will come along, but those successes have become so few and far between they aren’t worth the risk anymore.
So, everything I’m saying here is a good argument to watch “Fringe†live and DVR “Supernatural,†right? Not by a long shot. The problem is, “Supernatural†has had to fight very hard just for the viewers it gets. The CW only has a 95% cross country reach and several of the broadcasts this season have been pre-empted in Chicago and other large markets for local sports events. When there’s that lack of commitment from one of the largest affiliates it’s quite remarkable that “Supernatural†has managed to sustain on a night that people are abandoning live viewing.
Just by default of being on Fox “Fringe†will attract more viewers. It seems kind of unfair the big guy picking on the little guy, but I suppose FOX saw weaknesses at the other networks too and decided to capitalize. If they don’t succeed no big risk, “Fringe†gets cancelled.
So, the only win-win situation here (especially with Nielsen families) is to watch one live at 9pm and one on DVR at 10pm. Any other scenario just isn’t good for these shows. If that’s not the results the networks want, then stop competing similar shows against one another. It’s common sense really.
Alice,
What do you think the chances are that if Fox canceled Fringe, that another network would pick it up?
Excellent analysis of the situation. Like Leora I will DVR and watch Supernatural at 9pm and then watch Fringe at 10pm as I don’t have anything to watch in that hour anyway. I agree that Supernatural will probably come out the winner in the end as expectations are lower on The CW and Supernatural has already proven that its fans will follow it. I have grown to love Fringe and I’m very sorry to see these shows competing once again for the same viewers. Not thrilled that Fox is putting pressure on The Vampire Diaries either with the mid season schedule. Once again Fox is playing the role of the bad guy here.
I know that it’s rare for another network to pick up a show, but if Fox cancels Fringe, the CW should pick it up and pair it with Supernatural on Fridays since Smallville will be gone. I think they’re a good match and would do well. Oh well, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Hi Alice
With being a night shifter, I record all my shows anyways. Plus being in Canada our numbers don’t count anyways (at least I believe they don’t). I do however think putting Fringe against Supernatural is a shame and a mistake. I really like Fringe and have been watching since the beginning. I would hate to see it be cancelled. I know I’m not an expert in this field but wouldn’t it make more sense to put a lower viewing show up against an even more lower viewing show, instead of one more equal or higher?
I’m with Stephanie. I think the CW should go with the dream team of Fringe 8p and Supernatural 9p. 😀
Plus, in my area, western Michigan, At&T doesn’t even have the CW. They can’t connect to it or something whic is total crap cause i could watch it when i had comcast. I have to watch SPN on hulu or other download sites. 🙁
What’s your feeling on the fans of SPN right now who aren’t happy with the show and are either DVRing it or have stopped watching it all together? I know the ratings for each episode this season have slowly declined, only to pick up when adding in the DVR ratings. I would think the only way Supernatural could continue to win against Fringe would be that CW either moves it to 7pm or makes sure it pairs SPN up with another winning show – but they haven’t got one!
I don’t watch Fringe so it’s not a problem for me. But I do reach more and more each day about SPN fans jumping ship because they don’t like the show anymore and I wonder how it’s going to affect them when they return from winter hiatus.
That’s a great question. Here’s my take.
I remember outcries over Ruby and Bela in season three, Sam’s demon blood addiction in season four, Dean’s character in season five, and the scads of people who swore off the show after being disappointed with “Swan Song.†The show has always stuck to its guns first and dealt with the fans later. I’ve made it known that this Sam is soulless story line is not sitting very well with me (although it worked perfectly this week) but I also accept there’s a creative vision in play here and I’m determined to see it out. Patience is required and they have mine even though it is getting tested big time.
So, despite the outrage of a fickle fandom in the past, it’s always worked out in the end and everyone has moved on to the next story. If this ends up being a story line that alienates the fandom enough where a vast majority stops watching, that’ll have to be something that only the writers and the network can address. They’re not there yet though so let’s see what’s in store.
Ratings have dropped the last few weeks because the show has been pre-empted in Chicago. However, yes, I’m certain there is also some fan frustration out there that is not inspiring people to watch live. They are probably catching up on DVR later. That’s obvious because Smallville and Supernatural’s ratings have been even up until the last few weeks. Now Smallville is pulling away by half a million viewers. That’s a good chunk. I think it helps that Smallville has the whole Lois and Clark romance thing going and Clark is finally embracing his destiny. I come away from those episodes feeling good. It’s not heavy entertainment. Supernatural is just too painful. It’s literally soulless and the main attraction of the show, the chemistry between the brothers, hasn’t been there. It’s not forcing me away but it might be forcing others. Again, if that’s something that needs to be addressed, it will happen behind the scenes without fan involvement.
There is A LOT of fan frustration out there. There has been a drop on response to episode comments on many fan sites. Those outraged have been expressing their outraged for months, and as Alice said, the showrunners ignored it. And that outrage started long time before ‘Swan Song’. Fans will only complain for so long and then they’ll leave. It’s not like they didn’t try.
I can see the producers not worrying about a few negative posts, but the number I’ve seen has been a good chuck of fandom. Maybe this is what it takes to get the showrunners attention. Question for me, if they chose to listen now, will the fans return? I agree with, Alice, the show is just to depressing and that depression has been going on for too long.
Really if the series doesn’t change, I think Fringe is going to do major damage to SPN.
The thing is, I’ve been reading some of the recent online articles that Sera has done where she talks about the season and the direction its taken. And these articles have been posted on sites like buddytv, eonline, zap2it and such. The fan reaction to Sera’s comments are almost all negative and say pretty much the same thing, that they don’t like the direction she’s taking the brothers; this “new” relationship of there’s isn’t working, the chemistry isn’t there, the old Sam and Dean aren’t there. I would think that if Sera is brave enough to talk to publicists about her vision for the show, then she’s going to read the comments. So I find it hard to believe that the showrunners aren’t aware of the reaction of the fans.
Even Jim Beaver has posted on his twitter that the fans need to stick to it and they’ll be amazed at how all these loose ends will come together and start claiming S6 is the best season ever. I love Jim and his comments are the only reason why I’m going to keep watching. That and I feel like I owe it to Jared and Jensen that if they have to act out the scripts with the lousy writing, the least I could do is support them by watching it.
Sue N, I wrote about that after the whole “Swan Song” controversy. I highly suggest you check out this article, “Reality Check: Showrunners Want To Listen To Their Fans But Can’t” https://www.thewinchesterfamilybusiness.com/article-list/category7/9661-reality-check-showrunners-want-to-listen-to-their-fans-but-cant.html
Unfortunately, the online fandom is extremely negative and does not represent reality, especially to a showrunner. BuddyTV, Zap2It, Television Without Pity are known for negative posters. We are one of the most level headed sites out there and I don’t think we are listened too either. Jim Beaver’s assurances were likely due to a few fans that pestered him on Twitter about it. Showrunners are aware, but that does not make a guarantee that they’re going to change things. A lot of those notes come from the Producer (Warner Brothers) and the network. So like I said, it happens behind the scenes.
I’ve been very excited going into this season. I find myself looking forward to each week (rather than tuning in out of habit), which is something I haven’t done for a couple of seasons now. There IS a bit of that S1 feel to S6 that we were promised. I’m enjoying this season a lot and think the mythology is very creative with the Alphas, the wars in heaven/hell, Crowley as the antagonist, and the idea of Purgatory. Even the idea that Sam is without his soul at the moment was a fresh approach to the character and a different way of the brothers dealing with each other; a different dynamic, to an extent.
=But=… after 2 seasons of the brothers at odds and not really together like they were in S1 and S2, I would like Sera to keep her promise. RoboSam was a cute novelty at first, but it is being dragged out too long and I’m starting to get pretty fed up with the distance going on a third season now. Edlund’s episode managed to find a pleasant balance, but I would hate to have to deal with RoboSam the whole season. It’s a bit sad when I have to turn to Hawaii 5-0 to get my ‘buddy fix’. And now here comes Fringe.
Fans of both Fringe and SPN may find it easier to turn their back on SPN now that it is just these two guys forced to work together, who say they’re brothers, but no longer act like they care. We’ve lost the brother dynamic and the underlying bond of brotherhood that defined the rabid support of the show. The boys have lost the emotional connection to each other, and as a result we are quickly losing it with them. And this opens up a dangerous opportunity for Fringe to come in and offer what we are missing. No one wins when two shows in the same genre are opposite each other considering how few there are of such shows in the land of reality and procedurals.
But if SPN can quickly get back to the brothers not being at odds (the old Sam & Dean dynamic), and turn the focus on Sam dealing with his issues while they =both= tackle the challenges presented by the mythology, then the fans will continue to make SPN their ‘must-see’. I’m patient enough to see this through, but it is even more important now that Fringe is knocking on the door.
I really don’t think Fringe will pose much of a problem for Supernatural.
I’ve seen the legitimate complaints (here for example) about the season and a lot of snotty comments on various sites and I’m reminded of Mo Ryan’s comment warning — that something like 80% are lurkers and only 20% commenters. So I’m not sure that much statistical significance can be assigned to the online commenting vis-a-vis the ratings.
TV by the Numbers has been posting periodic updates on show ratings for this season vs last season. Comparing each show’s performance in the first 8 weeks of the season to same 8 weeks last season.
Smallville and Supernatural are even with last year while the rest of the CW line up and the timeslot competition are doing worse — in some cases considerably worse — this year than last. Poor CSI:NY – look at how hard the Friday move hit it.
Show Net % Change Adults 18-49 Rating Points Gained/(Lost)
Smallville CW 0% 0.0
Supernatural CW 0% 0.0
CSI CBS -9% -0.4
ANTM CW -11% -0.2
Office NBC -13% -0.7
Vampire Diaries CW -14% -0.3
Fringe FOX -17% -0.5
30 Rock NBC -17% -0.6
Dateline NBC -18% -0.3
GossipGirl CW -20% -0.3
90210 CW -21% -0.3
Grey’s Anatomy ABC -21% -1.5
One Tree Hill CW -23% -0.3
CSI: NY CBS -36% -1.3
–
Note: The ratings used in this calculation were the season to date adults 18-49 averages after eight weeks of each broadcast
So far, I can’t see that fan dissatisfaction has effected Supernatural’s ratings very much, if at all. If anything, there’s more evidence that Fringe fans may be dissatisfied with the alternate universe storyline than there is that Supernatural fans have quit watching due to the Soul-less Sam storyline. And, with Fringe already down, if the move to Fridays effects it the way the move effected CSI:NY – things don’t look good for Fringe.
I’m really impressed with Supernatural’s ratings performance on Fridays so far.