The Winchester Family Business

Once or twice a year, I go through how this crazy old ratings system works in the US.  Supernatural’s “soft” ratings lately have gotten a lot of people worried and I've been getting a lot of messages.  A few have even suggested dusting off the old “Save Our Show!” posters from the days when a fan effort was truly needed.  I’m going to help calm some fears here.  
 
I’ve been researching lately how much Supernatural has made an impact internationally (thank you all for your amazing responses) and trying to pull together some responsible math for how much approximately Supernatural is making worldwide on the first run and second run syndication markets (it’s a lot).  That article isn’t ready yet (you all have been keeping me busy on this site!) but it’s impressive.  Supernatural has reached the golden goose number, as in number of episodes, where the show can now really make some serious cash elsewhere and not just sustain itself enough to cover a yearly budget. 
 
For now, I’m going to list some of the common concerns that people have shared with me and try to answer the questions the best I can in pure geekdom.  You know how much I love this topic!  
 
Supernatural isn’t getting anywhere near the live ratings they used to.  They're really bad now.  It’s going to get cancelled for sure!
 
Part of that is a true statement, the first sentence.  Supernatural isn’t getting anywhere near the live ratings they used to.  Neither is all of network TV.  The traditional Nielsen rating system grows more and more obsolete every year.  It stopped being a true measure of viewers years ago.  People are watching their shows in alternate forms now.  DVRs, DVDs, iTunes, Online, illegal downloads (okay we’ll gloss that one over).  Live TV is passe.  ESPECIALLY on Fridays.  So much so that aging shows, which aren’t the ratings blockbusters anymore, but viable enough where the network wants to rack up some extra episodes so they can be sold in syndication, end up on Fridays.  Need examples?  Law & Order, CSI NY, Chuck, Fringe, Smallville, and Supernatural.  I’m sure there are more, but that’s off the top of my head.  
 
Live network ratings are declining on average about 9 or 10 percent a year.  For The CW, that number is far worse.  So far this season, it's down 33 percent over last season.  For example, this time last year, Gossip Girl brought in a 1.2 in adults 18-49.  Monday night, it drew .6.  This year, it’s really bad for many shows.  Unless you’re CBS.  That’s because their average viewership is older and watching live TV is still a habit.  
 
The idea is as long as you’re one of the top shows on your network, you’re okay.  So far, Supernatural is getting outperformed by some on more watched nights, in live ratings anyway, but they’re still in the pack and not the worst.  When the most recent DVR +7 ratings were factored in (those that watched on their DVRs within 7 days), Supernatural  finished only behind The Vampire Diaries in 18-49.  Their numbers grew a whopping 63%.  
 
Advertisers don’t care about DVR numbers.  They only want live viewers.  
 
Not true, yet true.  Advertisers pay based on the DVR +3 ratings (Live ratings plus DVR viewings after 3 days).  Great, what are those?  We don’t know.  Nielsen doesn’t allow those ratings to be released publicly.   Are they better than Live ratings plus same day DVR?  Some experts say not.  I have no reason to doubt that.  
 
However, in terms of finding out how many people are viewing alternatively, there are very few measurements out there.  Online viewing and iTunes sales aren’t released either.  DVR +7 ratings can at least tell if your show is getting watched at all.  In Supernatural‘s case, it is.  Does that matter for a show’s renewal chances?  In certain cases, it could.  It supposedly did for Fringe last year.  In Supernatural’s case, it’s all for PR, to prove people actually still watch the show.  
 
Then Supernatural is in danger by lower ratings!  Not so fast.  This is a show in it’s seventh season.  There are currently 125 episodes out there on the open market (seasons 1 - 6) and another 23 coming.  Shows are paid for BY EPISODE.  So yes, Supernatural is making more money out there in international markets and second run syndication than shows like The Vampire Diaries simply because they have more episodes.  
 
Renewal or cancel decisions are going to weigh heavier with ratings on a show like Nikita, which is in its second season and doesn’t have the vast back catalog, compared to a veteran show like Supernatural.  If any “save our show” campaigns should be firing up right now, it’s Nikita fans.  
 
Here’s a great syndication case study.  Look at Smallville.  That show went ten seasons.  Ratings dropped like a rock.  It once got 8 million viewers live.  Then it bottomed out at around 5.5 million.  When it went out on The CW after season ten, it was barely pulling 2 million.  Creatively the show struggled in its later years, especially around season 8.  So why did it keep getting renewed?  For one, it was always one of the top performers on the network, overall ratings wise anyway.  In the network target 18-34 demo though, it struggled a lot compared to other CW shows and often got beat by other networks easily.  Plus it drew more men than the coveted female demographic.  It held up for The CW enough though. 
 
You see, Smallville made a lot of money in international syndication (still does).  By the time the show was finished, Warner Brothers had 217 episodes to sell in second run syndication.  At an average of around $400,000 an episode, that’s almost $90 million per deal.  Granted, I’m not sure a lot of networks will buy all 217 episodes, but you get the idea.  Plus, anything earned in second run is now pure profit with no show production costs.  It was a franchise that had huge income potential written all over it once it hit FIVE seasons.  Warner Brothers milked it.  Guess what other show is on their list now?    
 
Supernatural has an assured 148 episodes to sell right now.  You don’t think Warner Brothers is thinking 200?  Smallville ended because Welling and the producers were ready to move on.  The same is true for The Gilmore Girls, which was one of The CW’s top rated show when it ended.  The actors had enough.  The same is happening this year for One Tree Hill.  That’s what will end Supernatural.  From everything we’ve heard so far, everyone is looking forward to a season eight.  After that, who knows?    
 
This isn’t just a CW thing.  Once a show hits that five year mark, they’ll keep it going as long as possible.  Look at the Law & Order franchise and all the CSI shows.  I mean, Law and Order: SVU is in its 13th season.  It’s not a ratings blockbuster, but one of the better shows on NBC.  Plus at 13 seasons, that’s plenty of episodes and counting for syndication. 
 
I have this little fantasy myself that when The CW’s ten year affiliate agreements expire after the 2015-2016 season, the network will fold and Supernatural will go out with it’s network, being the only show to run from beginning to end.  That’s only me though.  You do have to wonder with live ratings crashing across the board on The CW, will alternative forms of viewing be enough for them?  A system should be in place by 2012 to measure all forms of viewing, so we’ll see what happens.  
 
The CW doesn’t make any money off of Supernatural’s syndication.  Only sagging ad revenue.  They won’t want to keep the show. 
 
The CW doesn’t follow the same business model as other networks exactly.  The joint owners of the network, CBS and Warner Brothers, have figured out that their network is always going to run at a loss.  Advertising alone for their shows just isn’t going to cut it.  It didn’t on their bigger WB and UPN networks.  It’s a broken model.  So, they’ve decided that any loss on the network (which they split) will by offset by a lot when they sell their younger skewing shows on the international market.  
 
So far, they have been proved very right.  All the shows make money for the parent networks.  Shows with large catalogues like One Tree Hill, Smallville, and Supernatural (add Gossip Girl to that list at the end of this year) really make a lot of money, but the others do well too, covering the budgets and a little more.  CBS has their shows, Warner Brothers has theirs, and if either want their show to continue, the other won’t object.  As long as the producers want their show to continue, it normally will.  It’s the newer shows (aka Life Unexpected, Reaper) that have the greatest danger.  Making marginal dollars now with no syndication potential later makes the cost of making the show not that attractive.  
 
If sagging ratings aren’t a major factor for renewal, how will TPTB get the message that their creative decisions suck? 
 
I LOVE this one.  This person, who shall remain nameless, even realized that fans can be victims are their own success.  
 
Networks really don’t care about quality.  Haven’t you noticed?  As long as they can make money selling advertising, they don’t care.  That’s why cheap and trashy reality is so popular.  
 
This part boils down to how receptive the producers are to their fans.  A fan revolt could lead to a cancellation of a show, but it takes a lot.  Heroes is the recent example that comes to mind.  Heroes still went into its 4th season, but it struggled creatively after season one.  It has to be something huge for a fan revolt to derail a show.  Let’s say it didn’t happen to Heroes because angry Nathan Petrelli fans got vocal.  The whole formula of the show went off and never found it’s way back.   
 
TPTB should want to consider the fans.  This all boils down to legacy.  They shouldn’t want to hurt the franchise they worked so hard to build.  They can’t please everyone, but when the complaints get repetitive and dragged out over a long amount of time, the message should be received.  I’m not saying it always works that way, but fan input is what keeps them honest.  They can’t always listen to us, but overall trends should be examined.  Plus, they do want some form of quality to exist for second run syndication for years to come.  Not that Chris Carter followed that philosophy with the last two seasons of The X-Files, but it should be considered.   
 
Well, that’s me hitting the tip of the iceberg.  I hope this has been helpful.  My overall message is here, don’t try to judge ratings on a season seven show the way you do a season two show.  Different standards apply.  The same is true with The CW compared to other networks.  It’s just not the same.  Loyal fans do matter too.  Look at Chuck.  That show has only survived because of intense fan efforts.  So, decisions aren’t purely made on numbers.  
 
Got any more questions?  Send them my way and I’ll do what I can to answer them.   
 
 
 For all the latest Supernatural info and article links, follow The Winchester Family Business on Twitter at @WinFamBusiness

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